Oil scenarios for long-term business planning: Royal Dutch Shell and generative explanation, 1960-2010

Most executives know that overarching paints of plausible futures will profoundly affect the competitiveness and survival of their organisation. Initially from the perspective of Shell, this article discuses oil scenarios and their relevance for upstream investments. Scenarios are then incorporated into generative explanation and its principal instrument, namely agent-based computational laboratories, as the new standard of explanation of the past and the present and the new way to structure the uncertainties of the future. The key concept is that the future should not be regarded as ‘complicated’ but as ‘complex’, in that there are uncertainties about the driving forces that generate unanticipated futures, which cannot be explored analytically.oil scenarios; Shell; ACEGES; agent-based computational economics

International Association for Energy Economics � | 5 Capacity Concepts and Perceptions – Evidence from the UK Wind Energy Sector

We all know that the wind is intermittent. As a rough measure, wind turbines can only operate when wind speeds are between 4 metres per second and 24 metres per second. There is a further technical limit, which need not concern us here, Betz’s Law – the maximum theoretical efficiency of a wind turbine is the ratio of the maximum power obtained from the wind to the total power available from the wind. Thi

Modulatory Effects of GABA(B) Receptor Facilitation in a Model of Chronic Inflammation

Inflammation within the brain (neuroinflammation) has been associated with a number of neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimerʼs disease (AD) (Solito et al., 2012). Within the brain, inflammation is defined broadly as prolonged activation of the brainʼs immune cells, known as glial cells. Excessive activation of glial cells within the brains of AD patients is a hallmark of the disease, however the mechanism by which this contributes to disease pathology is relatively unclear (Jo et al., 2014). Recently, studies have shown that glial cells, known as astrocytes, are able to synthesize and release the inhibitory neurotransmitter GABA (Charles et al., 2003). Further, microglia cells, the primary immunocompetent cells of the brain, have been shown to be GABAceptive cells, which express GABA (B) type receptors (Kuhn et al., 2004). Early characterizations of AD first described alterations in astrocyte location and activation in the disease and interestingly, differences in the total abundance of GABA within the brains of AD patients have recently been reported. Combined, these data provide support for the hypothesis that astrocytes regulate microglia activity through the release of GABA acting at GABA(B) type receptors. The activation of GABA(B) on microglia may serve to reduce the activation status of these microglia, thereby reducing the number of pro-inflammatory cytokines present within the brain (Streit et al., 2002). In the present study, we examined the effects of the GABA(B) agonist baclofen on chronic inflammation in rodents administered lipopolysaccharide (LPS). LPS is a bacterial endotoxin derived from the cell wall of gram-negative bacteria and is capable of mounting an immune response through the activation of toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4). Our data indicate that the administration of baclofen initially attenuated the pyrogenic effects of LPS administration, though this effect was lost after two weeks of injections. The administration of baclofen also rescued deficits in spatial learning and memory seen in animals chronically administered LPS. Furthermore, a significant increase in the total abundance of AB oligomers, believed to play a role in the pathology of AD, was seen in the brains of animals chronically administered LPS. Together, these data provide evidence that the modulation of GABA(B) receptor function altered the immune response evoked by activation of TLR4. These data also provide support for a potential role of GABA(B) in modulating aberrant immune activity seen in AD populations

Ketamine Induced Deficits in Working Memory with Relevance to Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a chronic debilitating brain disorder, which affects approximately one per­cent of the adult population worldwide. The symptoms of schizophrenia are commonly divided into three broad classes: positive symptoms, negative symptoms, and cognitive disturbances (Kay, et al., 1987). The positive symptoms of schizophrenia include hallucinations, delusions, and dis­organized thinking, while the negative symptoms include affective flattening, social withdrawal, and an inability to plan and carry out future activities. The cognitive disturbances exhibited in schizophrenia include deficits in spatial reference and working memory as well as difficulties with focus and attention (Lewis et. al., 2007). Several models have been proposed as to the etiology of schizophrenia, one of which proposes the hypofunction of a discrete class of excitatory receptors (NMDA) on primarily inhibitory circuits in the brain. This change in signaling is argued to give rise to a loss of coordinated network activity throughout the brain resulting in deficits observed in schizophrenia (Figure 1). Data for this model is based on postmortem alterations in inhibitory cir­cuits and the ability of drugs that block the function of the NMDA receptor (NMDA antagonists) to produce deficits similar to those seen in schizophrenia populations (Coyle, 2012). The ability of these NMDA antagonists to produce psychosis similar to what is observed in schizophrenia has led to their extensive use in studying the mechanisms responsible for the disorder. Previous studies in our laboratory have demonstrated the ability of ketamine, an NMDA receptor antago­nist, to produce deficits in rodent’s spatial and emotional learning and memory consistent with observations in schizophrenia populations (Bolton et al., 2012; Sabbagh et al., 2012). In these investigations, it was also shown that ketamine administration was sufficient to induce alterations in inhibitory circuits in the brain that are commonly implicated in schizophrenia (Sabbagh et al., 2013). In the present study, we examined the extent to which the same administration of ketamine produced deficits in rodent’s spatial reference and working memory performance in the radial arm maze task. As working memory deficits are a core pathological feature of schizophrenia, these in­vestigations seek to further the validity of the ketamine model as it relates to the etiological origin of schizophrenia

60NiTi Intermetallic Material Evaluation for Lightweight and Corrosion Resistant Spherical Sliding Bearings for Aerospace Applications, Report on NASA-Kamatics SAA3-1288

Under NASA Space Act Agreement (SAA3-1288), NASA Glenn Research Center and the Kamatics subsidiary of the Kaman Corporation conducted the experimental evaluation of spherical sliding bearings made with 60NiTi inner races. The goal of the project was to assess the feasibility of manufacturing lightweight, corrosion resistant bearings utilizing 60NiTi for aerospace and industrial applications. NASA produced the bearings in collaboration with Abbott Ball Corporation and Kamatics fabricated bearing assemblies utilizing their standard reinforced polymer liner material. The assembled bearings were tested in oscillatory motion at a load of 4.54 kN (10,000 lb), according to the requirements of the plain bearing specification SAE AS81820. Several test bearings were exposed to hydraulic fluid or aircraft deicing fluid prior to and during testing. The results show that the 60NiTi bearings exhibit tribological performance comparable to conventional stainless steel (440C) bearings. Further, exposure of 60NiTi bearings to the contaminant fluids had no apparent performance effect. It is concluded that 60NiTi is a feasible bearing material for aerospace and industrial spherical bearing applications

Early Surgery for Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: Where Are We Now?

Study Design: Narrative review. Objective: There is a strong biological rationale to perform early decompression after traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). With an enlarging clinical evidence base, most spine surgeons internationally now favor early decompression for the majority of SCI patients; however, a number of pertinent questions remain surrounding this therapy. Methods: A narrative review evaluating the status of early surgery for SCI. In particular, we addressed the following questions: (1) Which patients stand to benefit most from early surgery? 2) What is the most appropriate time threshold defining early surgery? Results: Although heterogeneity exists, the evidence generally seems to support early surgery. While the best evidence exists for cervical SCI, there is insufficient data to support a differential effect for early surgery depending on neurological level or injury severity. When comparing thresholds to define early versus late surgery-including a later threshold (48-72 hours), an earlier threshold (24 hours), and an ultra-early threshold (8-12 hours)-the 2 earlier time points seem to be associated with the greatest potential for improved outcomes. However, existing prehospital and hospital logistics pose barriers to early surgery in a significant proportion of patients. An overview of recommendations from the recent AOSpine guidelines is provided. Conclusion: In spite of increasing acceptance of early surgery post SCI, further research is needed to (1) identify subgroups of patients who stand to derive particular benefit-in particular to develop more evidence-based approaches for central cord syndrome and (2) investigate the efficacy and feasibility of ultra-early surgery targeting more aggressive timelines

An old climate war

During the 1990s a 'war' was fought over climate change between the author and some (not all) of his senior colleagues at the World Energy Council. There were two strands to his work: serious energy analysis and consideration of possible futures; and potential climate change. In the latter role he came up against stringent and often ill-informed criticism of his work and actions. Ill-informed because the critics did not appear to be aware of the serious and widely supported (within the WEC) published works of the WEC; and were frequently incorrect in what they claimed the author had said or written, or wrongly attributed to him actions by others outside the WEC. The record of relevant WEC publications, and the attacks made by those seeking to deny climate change or obfuscate debate on the related issues from the American Petroleum Institute, Global Climate Coalition, and US Climate Council, are related here. Everything here is based upon written records (unpublished as well as published) in the author's possession and his recollections